Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
As per Opta, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
