Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
